Poker Jackpot

Probabilities and Random Numbers

Own often might you expect to hit a Poker royal flush? This depends not only on luck but on how fast you play. An estimate used in one early book is four hands per minute (15 seconds per hand). From my own experience, and from watching others, I felt sure that the typical experienced player is much faster than that. To find out just how fast, I timed myself several times and found that I play anywhere from eight to 15 hands per minute depending on the machine and my mood.
I then watched several other players who seemed to know what they were doing (without letting them know they were being timed). Some were faster (up to 16 hands per minute even while feeding quarters to a noncredit machine system), and some were slower, but none played fewer than seven hands per minute. The average was just under nine hands per minute, or about 500 hands per hour after taking a few minutes out for a drink or a pit stop.

Claiming of Hands

One reader claimed the ability to play 400 hands in 15 minutes, but it would require playing two very fast machines to make that possible. It's doubtful that such a rate could be maintained error-free for a significant length of time, but most pros claim playing rates between 600 and 1,000 hands per hour.
1300ps, I used that word "luck." Yes, luck exists, but it affects your outcome only in the short term. In the long run, it is skill that makes the difference between a winner and a loser. In this author's opinion the word "luck" should be used only in the past tense. It's reasonable to say "I've been lucky" or "I've been unlucky" (either of which is likely in anyone session), but this can not be carried into the present. That is, just because I've been lucky doesn't mean that I am lucky or that a particular machine is lucky. And it certainly can't be projected into the future ("I will be lucky" or "I feel lucky today"). A mathematician or statistician will refer to standard deviations rather than luck. Jean Scott, author of The Frugal Gambler in Omaha, has another way to put it: "The more you study, the 'luckier' you will get."

Jackpot Average

Since the games average one royal in about 37,000 to 48,000 plays, a typical poker player may expect to average one jackpot for every 50 to 100 hours of play. But note that this is an average, which is meaningful only as a statistical projection. Just because you have played eighty hours doesn't mean you're "due" for a jackpot. Ironically, unskilled players are likely to hit more royals than skilled players because they often try for a royal when there is a better draw available-one with a higher EY.
Regardless of how long you've played or how many jackpots you've hit, you can reasonably expect about four or five royals in your next 400 hours of play. Of course if you play faster or slower than 500 games per hour, your average playing time per jackpot will be shorter or longer, respectively.